USA vs. Belgium Pre-game Thoughts

The USA takes on Belgium this afternoon at 3:00 Central. The winner advances to the quarterfinals. The U.S. has only advanced past the Round of 16 once since FIFA went to a 32-team field. In Belgium, the USA faces a strong, young team that some have labeled a dark horse to win it all. Can the U.S. beat Belgium and move on? For a couple of reasons, I think they can.
Using the latest Elo rankings (from before the World Cup), the USA is ranked one spot ahead of Belgium (#13 vs. #14). So based on ranking alone, this game looks like an even game.
On top of that, most of the teams that have won their round of 16 game have been the higher-ranked team. The big exception is Costa Rica, which entered the tournament ranked #32. Since then, however, Costa Rica advanced first out of its group (arguably the hardest in the tournament) and yesterday beat a Greek side that advanced out of one of the easiest groups. So, being higher ranked does suggest the U.S. has a chance.
In addition to the rankings, the USA has another advantage: they've earned their position. Belgium advanced out of what was by far the easiest group in the group in the tournament. They have not had to play terribly well in order to advance. Thus, they're not in great form. From watching the second half of their match against South Korea, Belgium looked weak. Granted, they were down to 10 men, but they didn't look terribly impressive against the #42-ranked South Korea. In other words, Belgium is not the powerhouse that the U.S. might have faced coming out of a different group.
Therefore, the U.S. has a really good chance at advancing past Belgium. The match-up is equal or slightly in favor for the U.S. on paper.
For that slight advantage to come to fruition, the U.S. needs one to play well and get a couple of breaks. Given that the U.S. has a history of getting bad breaks in World Cup games, playing well will be critical to American success.
If Josie Altidore is healthy enough to start, then the U.S. has a target forward that can help hold possession and both create and finish chances.
Even if Altidore is healthy, he is probably not going to go the full 90, so at some point the U.S. will probably be playing with Dempsey up top, supported by two wing midfielder/forward players.
In either scenario, for the offense to work, the three central midfielders have to do their job. In particular, Michael Bradley needs to play like he did against Portugal instead of like he did against Ghana and Germany. Some of Bradley's success in Portugal resulted from the lack of pressing demonstrated by the Portuguese. Give a talented player like Bradley time to lift his head up, and he can beat you every time. Close down his space and make him play the first thing he sees, and he struggles. Since Belgium is a young team, I expect them to press high up the pitch, so Bradley is going to have find a way to play well with constant pressure. If he struggles, the U.S. will have difficulty scoring and even maintaining possession.
If Bradley struggles, his center-midfield teammates need to pick him up. One of them needs to do an equal job of making good passes and being a "pivot point" for the offense. Part of having three center midfielders is the advantage of having two distributors, making it harder for an opponent to shut down the offense.

In the end, this game projects to be a tight one. Two teams that on paper are equally matched, each with its own weaknesses and strengths. As with any World Cup elimination game, it comes down to who can make the most of the available chances, coupled with perhaps one or two random "lucky breaks." Whether the U.S. wins or loses, it should be a great game.