The United States takes on Germany at 11 a.m. CDT today. This game matches up the teams who currently occupy the top two stops in Group G, both with 4 points. Germany is on top with a +4 goal differential, while the U.S. has a +1 differential.
*Neither team is guaranteed to go through because Portugal and Ghana each have 1 point, so there are scenarios that would have either Portugal or Ghana advancing. Those scenarios require some creativity, however, as Ghana has a -1 goal differential and Portugal is buried with a -4 differential.
*For the U.S. to advance, all they need is a win or a draw. The U.S. can advance even if they lose if their goal differential is greater than the winner of Ghana-Portugal. If the U.S. has the same goal differential as the winner of Ghana-Portugal, they will advance if their total number of goals scored is greater than Portugal's or equal to Ghana's (whichever wins). (For a full, interactive table, see this excellent work by a couple of soccer fans at the NY Times.)
*Germany, likewise, advances with a win or a draw. A loss does not eliminate Germany, and as long as they do not lose big, they are into the round of 16.
*As a result, I expect the U.S. & Germany to come out and play conservative. In order to win, a team must advance with numbers, making it vulnerable to counter-attacks and goals. Playing aggressively, in other words, increases the probability of winning but also the risk of losing. If both teams are conservative, however, they likely will get fewer scoring chances, but they will also make themselves less vulnerable to counter-attacks and goals. Playing conservatively increases the probability of a draw. Since a draw sends both teams through, and since playing aggressively results in a risk of losing and losing is highly undesirable, I expect both teams to play conservative and this game to be a 0-0 draw. Neither needs to win, so there's no need to try to score much. As a result, this game could be a slow-motion, grinder, interesting only to fans of the U.S. and Germany. We'll see how it plays out. One team could make the most of its opportunities, but it probably won't be a wide-open game.
Concerning anything but math, although using math when necessary. All opinions expressed in this blog are the author's and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Google or any of the following: the author's employer, previous employers, spouse, family, friends, pets, acquaintances, and/or enemies. The opinions expressed herein are necessarily the views of the author's refrigerator magnets. So there!
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